Investment & Finance
ProCommitment Escalation Check
承諾升級檢查 · Source: Barry Staw / Behavioral Economics
Detecting whether you're escalating commitment to a failing bet — justified only by "I've invested too much"
Core Concept
Commitment escalation is the evolved form of sunk cost fallacy: you're not just continuing a bad investment, you're doubling down. This pattern recurs in organizations and personal decisions: initial commitment → poor results → additional investment to "rescue" → worse results → more investment. Each escalation raises the psychological exit cost.
✓ When to use this
When you notice escalating commitment to a decision, position, or relationship while objective evidence turns against it. Commitment escalation is doubling down to "prove the earlier judgment right" — deeper than sunk cost.
✗ When not to use this
Commitment strengthened by genuinely new evidence is not the trap — that is rational scaling. Distinguish "more certain because evidence got stronger" from "more invested because I am already invested."
Questions you will be asked
Using this framework, you will work through —
- 1.What are you considering escalating commitment to? What is the stated reason for escalating?
- 2.What is the history of this project/decision? How many times have you escalated before?
- 3.If you were encountering this opportunity today for the first time, would you invest? Why?
- …and 3 more
Related Frameworks
Psychology & Behavior
Sunk Cost Check
Detecting whether you're continuing something you shouldn't — because of what you've already invested
Psychology & Behavior
Cognitive Bias Checklist
Pre-flight check before any important decision — scan for five high-frequency biases before you commit
Psychology & Behavior
Identity-Based Decision
Anchoring important decisions on "who I want to become" rather than "what outcome I want"