Psychology & Behavior
Base Rate Forecasting
基準率參照 · Source: Philip Tetlock / Daniel Kahneman
Decisions requiring outcome forecasts — from startup success rates to investment returns, start by asking "how does this type of thing typically go"
Core Concept
People naturally reason from their specific situation rather than statistical baselines. Base rate forecasting requires you to first find a "reference class" — the category of events most similar to yours — and start from that class's historical outcomes before adjusting for your specifics.
✓ When to use this
When predicting probabilities, estimating success rates, evaluating "can I pull this off." Startup success rates, drug trial pass rates, job-change salary lifts — anywhere historical statistics exist.
✗ When not to use this
When your situation truly diverges from the reference class — e.g. you have advantages absent from the statistical sample (insider resources, unique skill stack). But "I am special" itself needs proof first.
Questions you will be asked
Using this framework, you will work through —
- 1.What are you trying to forecast or evaluate?
- 2.Find your reference class: what type of event does this decision belong to?
- 3.What are the historical outcomes for this reference class?
- …and 3 more
Related Frameworks
Psychology & Behavior
Inside View vs Outside View
Planning and forecasting — especially when you're overly optimistic about your own project, goals, or capabilities
Investment & Finance
Expected Value Analysis
Decisions with quantifiable outcomes — investments, business decisions, choices with probability and payoff structures