Psychology & Behavior
ProLoss Aversion Check
損失規避檢查 · Source: Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky
Distinguishing between genuine risk assessment and your brain's irrational fear of loss
Core Concept
The pain of loss is roughly twice as powerful as the pleasure of an equivalent gain. This means you'll instinctively reject positive-expected-value opportunities to avoid loss, and take unwarranted risks to recover from losses. Loss aversion is one of the most common enemies of rational decision-making.
✓ When to use this
When you are refusing a clearly better option because of "not wanting to lose what I have." E.g. staying in a job for stability, refusing to cut losses to avoid admitting defeat — loss aversion usually disguises itself as prudence.
✗ When not to use this
When the thing at stake is genuinely important and hard to rebuild (health, key relationships, rare opportunities), "not wanting to lose" is a valid signal, not a bias. Use Margin of Safety here instead.
Questions you will be asked
Using this framework, you will work through —
- 1.What is your decision? Which option are you leaning toward rejecting or avoiding?
- 2.What exactly are you afraid of losing? List them.
- 3.What is the actual probability of these losses occurring? What's the magnitude in the worst case?
- …and 3 more
Worked example
Expand to see what a filled-in run looks like
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Worked example
Expand to see what a filled-in run looks like
Situation
收到一個明顯更好的工作 offer——薪資 +35%、職級升一階、公司更有趣。但要放棄現職的 8 年年資、退休金累積、與認識的同事。已經猶豫 3 週。
1. What is your decision? Which option are you leaning toward rejecting or avoiding?
要不要接 A 公司的 offer。
2. What exactly are you afraid of losing? List them.
會失去：8 年年資、退休金累積、熟悉的同事、現職的安全感。會得到：35% 加薪、新職級、更有挑戰的工作、新領域學習。
3. What is the actual probability of these losses occurring? What's the magnitude in the worst case?
失去清單寫得很詳細，得到清單寫得很抽象。明顯失去面被放大了——這是 loss aversion 的訊號。
4. If you act, what are the potential gains? How does the expected value compare to the losses?
反向假設：如果我已經在 A 公司工作 5 年，現公司來邀請我，我會回去嗎？答案是「不會」。代表現職的吸引力其實比 A 低。
5. If a friend faced this exact situation, what advice would you give them?
8 年年資的實際金額化：勞退新制不會歸零（可攜）、退休金差異 5 年內可以由薪資差補回。情緒上感覺很重，財務上其實小。
6. How much of your hesitation is rational risk assessment vs. loss aversion instinct? What's your final decision?
接 offer。設定 6 個月為觀察期，若文化適應有困難再評估。
Use it inside ChatGPT / Claude
Paste the prompt below and the AI will walk you through this framework, one question at a time.
你現在是引導使用者檢測「損失規避」的決策教練。 依序問： 1) 你正在考慮的決策是什麼？是不是「換 vs 不換」、「停 vs 繼續」？ 2) 列出「會失去什麼」清單與「會得到什麼」清單——分開列。 3) 哪一份寫得更具體？通常失去清單比得到清單細很多——這就是訊號。 4) 反向假設：如果你已經在新狀態裡，會主動回到現狀嗎？ 5) 把失去的東西實際量化（金額、時間、可重建性）——情緒重量 vs 客觀重量差多少？ 6) 排除損失規避後，你的決策是什麼？ 特別注意：當使用者把每個失去都寫得很詳細，但得到只寫一兩句話——明確指出這個不對稱。 互動規則： 1. 一次只問一題，等使用者回答後再進入下一題。 2. 使用者答完所有題目前，不要做總結或下結論。 3. 若答案太抽象、太籠統，請追問一次具體例子或數字後再繼續。 4. 全部答完後，輸出三段：(a) 摘要使用者的關鍵判斷；(b) 你看到的盲點或張力；(c) 一個具體下一步行動建議。 5. 不要替使用者做決定，只把判斷攤開讓他自己決定。
Related Frameworks
Psychology & Behavior
Cognitive Bias Checklist
Pre-flight check before any important decision — scan for five high-frequency biases before you commit
Psychology & Behavior
Sunk Cost Check
Detecting whether you're continuing something you shouldn't — because of what you've already invested
Investment & Finance
Expected Value Analysis
Decisions with quantifiable outcomes — investments, business decisions, choices with probability and payoff structures
FAQ
How is the loss aversion check different from the sunk cost check?
Loss aversion is the deeper emotional mechanism — the pain of a loss is roughly twice the pleasure of an equal gain; sunk cost is one of its expressions — continuing to invest because you fear admitting an already-spent loss. The loss aversion check covers more ground (including refusing positive-EV bets and taking risks to "win it back"); sunk cost is just one scenario it triggers.
How do I tell reasonable caution from irrational fear of loss?
Test it with expected value. If an opportunity has positive EV and a worst case you can absorb, yet you refuse purely because you're "afraid of losing," that's loss aversion at work. Reasonable caution has numbers behind it (the worst case wipes me out); irrational fear has only emotion (I just don't want to lose). Compute first, then judge whether the unease is grounded.
How do I counteract loss aversion?
Three practical moves: (1) reframe the decision as a change in total wealth rather than the gain/loss of this one bet — shrinking the reference-point distortion; (2) ask "if this were someone else's money and choice, what would I advise?" to detach from emotion; (3) pre-commit rules for positive-EV opportunities so in-the-moment emotion has no room to veto.
Related studies