Investment & Finance
ProScenario Planning
三情境規劃 · Source: Shell / Strategic Planning
Systematically evaluating worst, base, and best outcomes under high uncertainty
Core Concept
Don't build just "my plan" — build three simultaneously: worst case (bear), most likely (base), best case (bull). Forcing yourself to plan for all three means you won't be caught off guard by any outcome, and it makes you more honest about expected value.
✓ When to use this
When the future is highly uncertain and a single forecast is untrustworthy. Build optimistic / base / pessimistic scenarios with response plans for each — more resilient than betting on one forecast, more flexible than over-hedging.
✗ When not to use this
Not for short-term decisions with narrow outcome ranges — multi-scenario analysis inflates unnecessary uncertainty. Also do not use it to indefinitely defer decisions; after three scenarios, action must land.
Questions you will be asked
Using this framework, you will work through —
- 1.What is the core uncertainty in this decision? What variable's direction most affects the outcome?
- 2.Worst case (Bear): If the key uncertainties all move against you, what happens?
- 3.Base case (Base): What is the most likely scenario? What probability do you assign?
- …and 3 more
Related Frameworks
Management & Thinking
OODA Loop
Making fast, effective decisions in rapidly changing or highly uncertain situations
Management & Thinking
Pre-mortem
Stress-testing a plan before committing — finding failure paths you haven't seen yet
Management & Thinking
Second-Order Thinking
Complex decisions with cascading effects, strategic choices, any "obvious" decision — because first-order outcomes everyone sees are often already priced in