Investment & Finance
ProMunger's Decision Checklist
芒格決策清單 · Source: Charlie Munger
Running a major decision through Munger's multi-mental-model filter before committing
Core Concept
Charlie Munger advocates using mental models from multiple disciplines to examine the same problem. His method: think in reverse (how to guarantee failure?), look for "don't do it" reasons, ask whose incentives might be distorting your judgment, and maintain discipline to wait for truly good opportunities.
✓ When to use this
Before final confirmation of major investments or life decisions. Run through Munger's multidisciplinary bias checklist (incentives, reciprocity, social proof, scarcity, authority…) to find where you are being unconsciously manipulated.
✗ When not to use this
Running the full checklist on small decisions becomes over-analysis. Beginners need to internalize each bias first — checklist without understanding degrades into ritual.
Questions you will be asked
Using this framework, you will work through —
- 1.What is this decision? Why are you considering it?
- 2.Inversion: If this is a trap, where is it? Who or what is most likely to make you regret it?
- 3.Incentives: Who is pushing you toward this decision? Are their incentives aligned with yours?
- …and 3 more
Worked example
Expand to see what a filled-in run looks like
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Worked example
Expand to see what a filled-in run looks like
Situation
考慮投資 200 萬到一檔新 IPO 股票。三個我尊敬的投資人都進場、財報亮眼、媒體大幅報導。我已經傾向「該買」。
1. What is this decision? Why are you considering it?
是否投 200 萬到 X 公司 IPO 股票。
2. Inversion: If this is a trap, where is it? Who or what is most likely to make you regret it?
激勵偏誤：推薦人是不是有從中獲利？券商朋友佣金、財經 KOL 業配——查證後發現兩位推薦人都收過合作費。
3. Incentives: Who is pushing you toward this decision? Are their incentives aligned with yours?
社會證明：「三個尊敬的投資人都進場」——但我尊敬他們的領域是消費品，AI 對他們也是新領域。他們的決策不該成為我的依據。
4. Have you genuinely tried to find reasons NOT to do this? How many clear "don't do it" reasons exist?
稀缺/急迫：IPO 有時間窗口、「現在不買就買不到」這個感受很強——但好標的不會只有這一個機會，下次 IPO 還是有。
5. How scarce is this opportunity? If you wait, what's the probability of a better one appearing?
確認偏誤：我看的全是看多分析，沒查空方研報。一查發現業內人對其單位經濟有疑問。
6. After running through Munger's checklist, what is your decision? How has it changed from your initial instinct?
撤回原計畫的 200 萬。改為 50 萬試水溫，等 IPO 後 6 個月真實營收數據出來再決定加碼。
Use it inside ChatGPT / Claude
Paste the prompt below and the AI will walk you through this framework, one question at a time.
你現在是引導使用者跑 Munger 偏誤清單的決策教練。 逐一檢查 Munger 25 偏誤中最常見的幾項： 1) 你正在考慮的重大決策是什麼？ 2) 激勵偏誤：推薦人/支持者有什麼利益？「展示我激勵你會看到什麼。」 3) 社會證明：「大家都這樣」是你的主要依據嗎？這些「大家」跟你處境相同嗎？ 4) 稀缺/急迫：是否有「現在不做就沒了」的感受？這個急迫是真實的還是被製造的？ 5) 確認偏誤：你查的資料是不是都支持原立場？反方資料找了嗎？ 6) 對權威/專家盲從：推薦人是該領域的真權威，還是只是有名氣？ 最後問：哪一項偏誤最可能正影響這個決策？這改變了你的決定嗎？ 提醒：Munger 自己每次大決策都跑一遍清單——不是儀式，是因為偏誤無感而強大。 互動規則： 1. 一次只問一題，等使用者回答後再進入下一題。 2. 使用者答完所有題目前，不要做總結或下結論。 3. 若答案太抽象、太籠統，請追問一次具體例子或數字後再繼續。 4. 全部答完後，輸出三段：(a) 摘要使用者的關鍵判斷；(b) 你看到的盲點或張力；(c) 一個具體下一步行動建議。 5. 不要替使用者做決定，只把判斷攤開讓他自己決定。
Related Frameworks
Psychology & Behavior
Cognitive Bias Checklist
Pre-flight check before any important decision — scan for five high-frequency biases before you commit
Management & Thinking
Inversion
Finding "how to guarantee failure" in order to reverse-engineer "how to guarantee success"
Management & Thinking
First Principles Thinking
Breaking "we've always done it this way" inertia — rebuilding solutions from the ground up
FAQ
How is Munger's checklist different from a cognitive bias checklist?
Munger's checklist is the broader "multiple mental models" filter — including inversion, incentive analysis, reasons not to act, and patience for good opportunities; a cognitive bias checklist focuses only on scanning your own biases. The latter is really a zoom-in on the psychology slice of the former. Munger's list spans psychology, economics, and probability.
Which item on Munger's checklist is most often overlooked?
Two: first, examining incentives — "what does the person advising me stand to gain?" Many bad decisions come from not seeing the incentive behind the advice. Second, restraint — waiting for a genuinely good opportunity; most people fail by being unable to stop acting, mistaking mediocre opportunities for good ones. Munger said one of the most important skills is simply "sitting still."
How do I turn Munger's thinking into executable steps?
Run four questions before deciding: (1) how would I guarantee failure? (inversion) (2) what are the reasons not to act? (3) whose incentives are influencing the judgment here? (4) is this the rare opportunity worth betting big on, or am I just itching to act? These four cover Munger's most central models and are more practical than memorizing a long list.
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