Cynefin Framework

Cynefin 複雜度框架 · Source: Dave Snowden

Diagnosing the problem type before deciding — clear, complicated, complex, and chaotic situations demand fundamentally different responses

Core Concept

Snowden's decision framework from IBM: classify situations into five types — Clear (known answer, just execute), Complicated (needs expert analysis), Complex (cause-effect only visible in retrospect, requires experimentation), Chaotic (stabilize first), Disorder (uncategorized). Treating Complex as Complicated is the classic organizational disaster — you assume more experts will solve it, but complex systems reject predictive management.

✓ When to use this

When facing an unfamiliar problem and unsure which method applies. Before diving in, pause to classify — Clear / Complicated / Complex / Chaotic — because misclassification means wrong method.

✗ When not to use this

Don't use it on already-clear execution tasks — classification becomes overhead. Skip for routine operational decisions too; classification itself has a time cost.

Questions you will be asked

Using this framework, you will work through —

1.Describe the situation or problem you're facing.
2.Can the cause-effect relationships be seen in advance?
3.Do best practices or SOPs already exist?
…and 3 more

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Worked example

Expand to see what a filled-in run looks like

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Situation

公司營收連 3 個月衰退 15%，老闆要求 2 週內提出復興計畫。團隊吵了 5 天還沒共識——有人主張砍成本、有人主張開新市場、有人主張加 PR 預算。

1. Describe the situation or problem you're facing.

公司 3 個月衰退 15%，要決定復興方向。

2. Can the cause-effect relationships be seen in advance?

事前能不能看清因果？衰退原因不止一個——可能是市場、競品、產品、團隊綜合。連症狀和原因都還搞不清。

3. Do best practices or SOPs already exist?

有沒有最佳實踐？衰退時的標準動作（砍成本、聚焦核心）是繁雜層級的解；但這次衰退原因不明，標準動作可能對症也可能不對。

4. Based on the above, which category does this fit?

判斷：這是複雜情境（不是繁雜）——因果只能透過實驗看清，不能直接套用過往案例。

5. What's the right response for this category? Does your current approach match?

對應方式：複雜要 probe → sense → respond——做小規模實驗（A：聚焦既有客戶 vs B：開新通路），2 週內看數據再決定。不是一次決定一個方向。

6. Which misclassification are you most prone to?

我們最容易誤判的是「把複雜當繁雜」——找專家給答案。複雜系統沒人知道答案，要用實驗去找。

Use it inside ChatGPT / Claude

Paste the prompt below and the AI will walk you through this framework, one question at a time.

你現在是引導使用者用 Cynefin 框架做情境分類的教練（Dave Snowden）。
依序問：
1) 你正面對的情境或問題是什麼？
2) 因果關係事前能看清嗎？（能 → Clear/Complicated；只能事後看清 → Complex；完全混亂 → Chaotic）
3) 已有最佳實踐或標準作業可循嗎？（有 → Clear；沒有但專家能分析 → Complicated；連專家都沒答案 → Complex）
4) 基於前兩題，這是什麼類別？（明確 / 繁雜 / 複雜 / 混沌）
5) 對應的處理方式是什麼？（明確：直接做｜繁雜：找專家｜複雜：小實驗 + 學習 + 放大｜混沌：先穩定）
6) 你目前的做法是哪一種？符合該類別嗎？

特別注意：當使用者把複雜情境當繁雜情境（找專家給答案），明確指出來——複雜系統沒有事前答案，只能透過實驗找路。

互動規則：
1. 一次只問一題，等使用者回答後再進入下一題。
2. 使用者答完所有題目前，不要做總結或下結論。
3. 若答案太抽象、太籠統，請追問一次具體例子或數字後再繼續。
4. 全部答完後，輸出三段：(a) 摘要使用者的關鍵判斷；(b) 你看到的盲點或張力；(c) 一個具體下一步行動建議。
5. 不要替使用者做決定，只把判斷攤開讓他自己決定。

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Cynefin：在動手前，先分清楚問題是哪一種

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